Sunday, August 5, 2007

Believe it!

Now I started this blog to see if I really knew what I was doing in the stock market. I am using my knowledge of the overall market using my expertise in mortgage lending to guide me. For full disclosure, I own none of the stocks listed in my portfolio.

With a wild week behind us, two late day rallies on Wednesday and Thursday and the overall market decline of 281 points on Friday my portfolio actually showed a profit of 1.8%. The S&P which is the standard comparison was down 1.8% for the week. So I beat the market this week by 3.6%. Not a bad start.

I'll start with the winners. Las Vegas Sands (LVS) showed a gain of 11.87% for the week which was my top gainer. Las Vegas Sands is an exciting stock right now. I look to see this stock continue to soar. I think you may see LVS get another boost to the stock if Wynn Resorts (WYNN) has a strong earnings report this week. WYNN is my stock pick over at Nesteggr. Allergan was my second biggest gainer showing a gain for the week of 9.87%. Allergan had reported better than expected earnings and have gotten an outperform rating looking for the target price of $67.

Transocean (RIG) was my big loser of the week at 8.95% loss even though the reported strong earnings. The company issued cautious forward looking guidance and the stock sold off with that news. As I said before, I really like RIG and their acquisition of GlobalSantaFe puts them in a fantastic position to really expand their operations. I would be tempted to buy on the dip here but I'll it give another week before giving any guidance of how to handle RIG.

Ford (F) was all over this week. I reported that they were up over 6% based on a rumored sale of Jaguar, Volvo, and Land Rover, but it was also based on a positive earning report from GM. The pop was short lived as they reported a 19% drop in year over year sales later in the week. Ford lost 2.07% this week overall. Ford still has plans in place to move Jaguar and Land Rover by the end of September and Volvo by the end of the year. This may be overly hopefully with the state of the debt markets right now. If they are able to move them, it will be good news for the stock. But to the downside Ford had recall issues also arise this week. Expect volatility for the next few quarters. I think that you will really start to see the upside start some time next year.

Most of my other stocks didn't have a lot of news come out. Proctor and Gamble (PG) did report better than expected and an expanded share buyback plan.

I am actively looking to get some small cap exposure to round out my 10 picks but I want to be careful right now. As soon as I have a pick, you will know about it.

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