Wednesday, August 22, 2007

A Reminder

First, before I get into anything else, I have to address yesterday's post about Buffet and Countrywide. I had a change of heart on the stock. See my blog at Nesteggr to see what I mean.

Just take a look at this headline. It's a reminder that this mess isn't just about stock price. I said this in my blog regarding the fall of American Home Mortgage, this is about people. It's a shame to see so many jobs lost. I'm sure that most of these companies made the decisions to slash jobs or shut their doors completely with a heavy heart. It ultimately is the price of doing business. As the old saying goes, "What goes up, must come down."

The mortgage industry had seen unprecedented growth in the last five years and now that the market has soured the inevitable cuts have started to bleed out. It's going to continue and it effects other businesses too.

Toll Brother, KB Homes, Pulte, and a number of other major builders have been reducing their outlooks because they can't sell the homes they have already built. Jobs have and will continue to be lost in home builders. Don't be surprised if one of these names goes under in the next 12 months if market conditions do not change dramatically.

Home improvement stores feel the pinch. Furniture retailers are squeezed. Retailers are already putting warnings out for the second part of 2007 because they are feeling it is going to be a weak holiday season. It's just not sock price. If these companies don't perform, jobs are lost in these areas too.

Yes, it is all tied together. It's not the end of the world. What we are seeing is the natural course of business. The one that it should be allowed to take (are you listening Ben?). But the sad part of the story is that the people who shout the loudest about the pain are the investors who have made lots of money in the last few years and not the ones that are actually feeling it. The people who are losing their livelihoods.

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